Foto: Gerd Altmann / Pixabay.com.

The amount of new cases of COVID-19 in Ukraine is rising everyday, with the last two days showing no signs of improvement, to say the least. For everyone with interests in Ukraine, it is time to start planning for a tough epidemic season this autumn.

This week, the entire country went into the yellow zone, a measure of the adaptive quarantine aimed at stifling the spread of the coronavirus. But sitting with a cocktail in the famous speak-easy Parovoz in central Kyiv, it was hard to register any changes in behaviour. The bar was packed, and outside the restaurants around Lva Tolstoho bursted with life.

In a recent feature on New York Times published four days ago, , told about her accidental visit to Kyiv, which she called the “Pandemic’s Party Capital.” Understandably, all of this is a nice break from the pandemic, but the downside is visible in the daily statistics. On Friday, for instance, 9058 new cases of the virus was registered in Ukraine.

The day before that, almost 8000 cases was registered. September 22, almost 7000 cases were registered. While this steady increase in cases is worrying in itself, looking at the tendency for the past month reveals that the number of COVID-19 cases is exploding. On August 22, 1000 cases were registered.

Following this trajectory, if nothing is done to curb the virus, reaching the 20,000 cases a day which was the peak of the pandemic in Ukraine this spring, will happen within a month – if not within weeks. Still a fig leaf of hope remains: As we have previous seen, it takes two weeks for quarantine restrictions to impact the number of daily cases, meaning that we might see a decrease in daily cases in the beginning of October.

The current state of the virus

Today, Ukraine has registered 8267 new cases of COVID-19. 2821 recovered from the disease, and in the past 24 hours 133 patients died. This means that roughly 5000 new cases of COVID-19 was added to the list of active cases. Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk and Lviv have been hit the hardest.

The 8267 cases were found in 39,360 PCR tests and 10,699 antibody tests, meaning that roughly 20 percent of the tests were positive. This hints at a much larger number of people carrying the disease without knowing it.

5.4 million Ukrainians are fully vaccinated with almost 1.3 million people having received the first shot. In the past 24 hours, roughly 160,000 got vaccinated. 97,000 of them received their first dose.