Photo by Jérôme Bussière on Unsplash

According to new forecasts, this year’s harvest will be better than last year, where both showers of rain and drought hit the output. 

Ukraine could see a rebound in grain exports by 19 percent this upcoming marketing year to 54 million tons, predicts the agricultural consultancy APK-Inform, according to UBN. Ukraine accounts for around a tenth of all wheat exports globally. This year, APK-Inform expects Ukraine to export 29.5 million tons of corn, 20 million tons of wheat, and 4.3 million tons of barley.

UBN writes that the Ukrainian ministry of economy expects that this year’s harvest will reach 75 million tons. It is 15 percent better than last year. 

“Preliminary, Ukraine will produce 75.1 mln tonnes of grains that will match the record of 2019. Productions of oilseed crops will reach 19.1 mln tonnes. The overall planted area under grains and oilseeds will total 24.2 mln ha, up by 0.3 mln ha from 2021,” the ministry informed, according to APK-Inform

Winter crops look good as well

The exports of sun oil are expected to increase by 17 percent this marketing year to 6.5 million tons, and it is in a market with high sun oil prices. However, according to one trader in Kyiv speaking to Refinitiv, not everyone gets a cut from the new higher prices. 

“High prices for new crop sunflower seed are offered only to those suppliers who have fulfilled their contracts in the current season, and there are few of them,” said the trader from Kyiv, who also noted that the Chinese demand for agricultural products had driven higher prices for several products. 

According to Succesful Farming, SF, the Ukrainian winter crops also look to be in good condition, and there is no reason to cut expectations for 2021. 

“There are currently no weighty reasons that can significantly limit the level of the future yield of winter wheat and other winter crops,” said a report by the Ukrainian agrarian academy, pointing out that “around 98% of Ukrainian winter wheat crops and 100% of winter barley were in good condition.”

Ukraine could triple exports to China

China is Ukraine’s largest trading partner, and it is primarily due to the countries high demand for Ukrainian agricultural products. Mykola Gorbachev, the President of the Ukrainian Grain Association, said that Ukraine could triple its grain exports to China. He recently signed a cooperation agreement with China’s Association of Small and Medium Enterprises, according to UBN. 

Gorbachev stated that most exports to China are corn and barley but that Ukraine should focus on selling more wheat, sorghum, peas, and other crops to boost exports and reach the real potential of Ukrainian agriculture. 

China’s media Global Times predicts that the US will become China’s largest trading partner in agriculture this year, overtaking Ukraine. It writes that this development is due to the trade deal between the US and China made by Donald Trump when he still was the President.